← The pulse · Pokémon · Subject
Charizard
The character across every vehicle · 1999 Base (1st Ed / Shadowless / Unlimited) · 2016 Evolutions · 2021 Celebrations · 2022 Brilliant Stars · 2023 Obsidian Flames & 151 · 2026 30th Celebration reprint
DumpingHeating
30th reprint · raw
$205
vs $600 baseline · −66%
From pre-release
−66%
launch mode · anchor = pre-release median
Shadowless PSA 7
$3,699
Oct 1 · baseline $3,889
Evolutions PSA 10
$10,000
Sep 29 · baseline $10,000
Base Unl PSA 9
$3,595
the benchmark
Clean sales on file
73
benchmark line · 13 lines tracked
The live event: pop and dump in six days
The 30th Celebration gold-border reprint of Base Set Charizard. Pre-release scarcity priced it near $600; release-day supply priced it near $220. Signal v0.2 launch mode caught it; v0.1 was blind.
100 clean sales · 2026 30th Celebration · gold-border Base Set Charizard 4/102 reprint, raw. No graded sales yet.
Where the Charizard money went: nostalgia tiers
Evolutions (2016) and Shadowless (1999) are the only Charizards heating. The 2016 kids are 25–30 now.
124 clean sales · 2016 XY Evolutions Charizard 11/108 holo PSA 9 (the liquid proxy). The PSA 10 (pop ~595) is the line that's heating, on fixed-price prints — needs an auction clear to confirm.
The benchmark hasn't moved
Base Set Unlimited PSA 9 is the most-traded four-figure Charizard and it's flat — which is what makes the Shadowless move a real relative signal rather than a tide.
73 clean sales · 1999 Base Set Charizard Unlimited PSA 9. PSA Vault is now ~40% of volume and its shown asks run 10–20% over accepted (130point).
Key card ladder
Nine vehicles for one character. PSA 10 pops from a PSA mirror (Pikawiz, Sep 16); verify on PSA before quoting.
#
Card
PSA pop / 10s
Gem rate
1
1999 Base Set 1st Edition Charizard 4/102
The grail · PSA 3–7 trade $10k–24k
~ / 125
—
2
1999 Base Set Shadowless Charizard
Scarcest widely-traded vintage tier · heating across grades 6–8
~ / 58
—
3
1999 Base Set Unlimited Charizard
The liquid vintage line · the benchmark
~ / 489
—
4
2016 XY Evolutions Charizard 11/108
The nostalgia reprint kids of 2016 opened
~ / 595
—
5
2021 Celebrations Classic Collection 4/102
Previous Base reprint · the template for what the 30th becomes
—
—
6
2023 Obsidian Flames ex 223/197 SIR
Modern chase, efficient
~ / 12,263
—
7
2023 SV 151 ex 199/165 SIR
Modern chase, cooling · see the set page
89,709 / 26,218
~29%
8
2022 Brilliant Stars V alt art 154/172
Cooling
~ / 15,290
—
9
2026 30th Celebration gold-border 4/102
The live event · no graded yet
0
—
Lines
Thirteen lines, 90-day window (vintage: everything found). Signal v0.2 · baseline = time-anchored median (liquid) or prior sales (thin) · Latest = 7-day median on liquid lines.
Line
Signal
Sales · 14d
Baseline
Latest
Peak · 120d
2026 30th Celebration · gold-border 4/102 reprint · raw
Released Sep 15–16
Dumping
46 · New
$600 −66%
$205 · Oct 1
$800 · Sep 10
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $205 | 130point · eBay AUC 48 bids · Pokemon Charizard 4/102 30th Anniversary Classic Collection |
| Sep 30 | $242 | eBay AUC 7 bids · rakana_61 · Pokemon Charizard 30th anniversary Gold 4/102 NM · id:298702 |
| Sep 30 | $230 | eBay AUC 38 bids · brunorips916 · Charizard 4/102 NM 30th Anniversary Holo Foil Gold Borde |
| Sep 29 | $242 | eBay AUC 14 bids · hibby17 · 30th Charizard GOLD Classic Collection 4/102 · id:28760194108 |
| Sep 29 | $195 | eBay BIN · andbuga0 · Pokemon Charizard 30th anniversary Gold 4/102 NM · id:820186729567 |
| Sep 28 | $200 | BIN royalbreaks |
| Sep 28 | $195 | eBay BIN · er_917209 · 30th Celebration Classic Collection Gold NM |
| Sep 28 | $190 | eBay AUC 21 bids · scotty197202 · Classic Collection Gold Border Holo |
| Sep 28 | $255 | eBay AUC 18 bids · kkevin43 · 30th anniversary Gold MINT |
| Sep 27 | $210 | BIN finishlineho30 |
| Sep 27 | $300 | AUC23 toyjunkie23 |
| Sep 27 | $230 | BIN cardsforless1 |
| Sep 27 | $208 | AUC12 ibuy2mch2 |
| Sep 27 | $200 | BIN katmoore03 |
| Sep 27 | $225 | BIN sth2500 |
1999 Base Set Shadowless · PSA 7
Heating across grades 6–8
Heating
6 · Liquid
$3,889 −5%
$3,699 7d med · last $3,699
$4,500 · Sep 17
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $3,699 | 130point · Fanatics BIN · 1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless Holo Charizard #4 PSA 7 NRMT · |
| Sep 28 | $3,600 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377515389473 |
| Sep 28 | $3,300 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377502296447 |
| Sep 28 | $4,200 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6559929 |
| Sep 28 | $3,960 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6554221 |
| Sep 23 | $3,999 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 298699516110 |
| Sep 18 | $3,803 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 117414504626 |
| Sep 17 | $4,500 | PSA 7 hyperbeamcollectibles AG BIN |
| Sep 8 | $4,200 | PSA 7 forpoke206 AG |
| Sep 3 | $3,161 | PSA 7 ryans_cardhouse AG |
| Aug 30 | $3,889 | PSA 7 pokefeensstore new cert AG |
| Aug 19 | $3,225 | PSA 7 zandgemporium AG |
| Jul 26 | $3,225 | PSA 7 pfootballpete4dhx |
| Jul 7 | $2,555 | PSA 7 quickconsign AG |
| Jun 30 | $2,950 | PSA 7 igokui23 AG |
1999 Base Set Shadowless · PSA 8
Heating
7 · Liquid
$5,522 +9%
$6,000 7d med · last $6,000
$6,102 · Sep 1
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $6,000 | 130point · Fanatics BIN · 1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless Holo Charizard #4 PSA 8 NM-MT · |
| Sep 30 | $5,972 | eBay BIN · pantheoncollectables (UK) · 1999 Shadowless #4 Charizard Holo PSA 8 NM-MT · id: |
| Sep 23 | $5,947 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 287601622492 |
| Sep 22 | $5,500 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 307184686392 |
| Sep 22 | $5,575 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 267620465334 |
| Sep 22 | $5,600 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800661892977 |
| Sep 21 | $5,160 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6496894 |
| Sep 15 | $5,544 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377478750306 |
| Sep 5 | $2,750 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 407193756976 |
| Sep 2 | $5,750 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · BestOffer · lot bc1bcbd3-492c-4e9e-ad3b-3c9c6751739c |
| Sep 1 | $6,102 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377444121484 |
| Aug 31 | $5,160 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6384808 |
| Aug 30 | $5,500 | PSA 8 chaewons_charizard AG |
| Aug 16 | $5,399 | PSA 8 pmar_6745 2 bids |
| Jun 25 | $5,050 | PSA 8 dcsports87 AG |
2016 Evolutions 11/108 · PSA 10
Pop ~595 · Sep prints all fixed-price
Heating
4 · Normal
$10,000 +0%
$10,000 · Sep 29
$10,799 · Sep 8
10 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | $10,000 | eBay BIN · pinkchyu · XY Evolutions #11 Charizard Holo PSA 10 |
| Sep 27 | $9,600 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 287594621470 |
| Sep 21 | $10,200 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6517783 |
| Sep 19 | $9,063 | PSA APR · Heritage Auctions · Auction · lot 7459-88008 |
| Sep 9 | $10,000 | HOLO PSA Vault BIN |
| Sep 8 | $10,799 | HOLO jusande_6 AG sold at ask |
| Sep 3 | $9,500 | HOLO appalachiangames AG |
| Aug 26 | $8,053 | HOLO dcsports87 AG 85 bids |
| Aug 2 | $8,000 | HOLO zandgemporium AG |
| Jul 19 | $8,000 | HOLO zandgemporium AG |
2016 Evolutions 11/108 · PSA 9
The liquid nostalgia line
Flat
38 · Liquid
$220 −14%
$190 7d med · last $179
$299 · Aug 16
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | $179 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Charizard 11/108 Holo Rare Evolutions ENG 2016 Pokemon TCG |
| Oct 1 | $264 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Pokemon TCG Evolutions XY Charizard Holo Card 11/108 PSA 9 |
| Oct 1 | $188 | 130point · eBay BIN · 2016 Pokemon XY Evolutions Charizard Holo #11/108 PSA 9 MINT · 17:22 |
| Oct 1 | $224 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377517890767 |
| Sep 30 | $209 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 407254472363 |
| Sep 30 | $190 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 336819748337 |
| Sep 30 | $250 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 147594662006 |
| Sep 28 | $168 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6578739 |
| Sep 28 | $252 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 137749885741 |
| Sep 28 | $175 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 178525812657 |
| Sep 28 | $156 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6447860 |
| Sep 28 | $180 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6578765 |
| Sep 28 | $186 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6533798 |
| Sep 28 | $168 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6578735 |
| Sep 28 | $162 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6578738 |
1999 Base Set Unlimited · PSA 8
Heating
44 · Liquid
$1,460 −6%
$1,375 7d med · last $1,325
$1,778 · Jul 25
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $1,325 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800706704711 |
| Oct 1 | $1,275 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 307205234369 |
| Sep 30 | $1,375 | eBay AUC 44 bids · psa (PSA Vault) · 1999 Pokemon Base Set Unlimited Charizard #4 Holo PSA |
| Sep 30 | $1,157 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377519309765 |
| Sep 30 | $1,176 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 128097190540 |
| Sep 30 | $1,388 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 137794038635 |
| Sep 30 | $1,251 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 198671524422 |
| Sep 30 | $1,625 | 130point · Heritage BIN · Pokemon Charizard 4 Unlimited Base Set PSA NM-MT 8 · 16:00 · id: |
| Sep 29 | $1,400 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 189006652758 |
| Sep 29 | $1,300 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 800722935723 |
| Sep 28 | $1,426 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 287596124983 |
| Sep 28 | $1,225 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 128092973557 |
| Sep 28 | $1,250 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307177080291 |
| Sep 28 | $1,275 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307182289119 |
| Sep 27 | $1,400 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 800724740034 |
1999 Base Set Unlimited · PSA 9
Efficient · PSA Vault ~40% of volume
Flat
14 · Liquid
$3,576 +1%
$3,595 7d med · last $3,525
$4,369 · Sep 24
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $3,525 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800706704626 |
| Sep 30 | $4,100 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 307113533479 |
| Sep 30 | $3,665 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 366687646831 |
| Sep 29 | $3,439 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 336816892351 |
| Sep 28 | $3,700 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 307191183768 |
| Sep 27 | $3,515 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307182695661 |
| Sep 24 | $3,600 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 307191188423 |
| Sep 24 | $4,369 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 206558746806 |
| Sep 23 | $3,475 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 128084894246 |
| Sep 23 | $3,325 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377504200957 |
| Sep 21 | $3,705 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 117408644839 |
| Sep 21 | $3,701 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 178413762739 |
| Sep 20 | $3,563 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 820140199240 |
| Sep 20 | $3,599 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 117420372051 |
| Sep 17 | $3,950 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 820119987769 |
1999 Base Set Unlimited · PSA 10
Pop ~489
Flat
2 · Normal
$28,750 +15%
$33,000 · Sep 26
$50,000 · Jul 23
8 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | $33,000 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 267793725836 |
| Sep 21 | $35,000 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 287111555967 |
| Sep 18 | $28,750 | PSA APR · Heritage Auctions · Auction · lot 7459-72003 |
| Sep 12 | $27,000 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 127681151541 |
| Sep 12 | $14,000 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 206550978481 |
| Sep 8 | $31,000 | itemland AG - 130point confirms BOA accepted $31000 |
| Jul 30 | $22,500 | 130point only: eBay fixed price sale not in eBay search |
| Jul 23 | $50,000 | dcsports87 AG sold at ask |
1999 Base Set 1st Edition · any grade
Grade in note · grade-mix noise
Heating
25 · Liquid
$14,701 −16%
$12,346 7d med · last $17,200
$78,000 · Sep 30
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $17,200 | PSA 6 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 298714559462 |
| Oct 1 | $11,900 | PSA 3 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 128101938005 |
| Sep 30 | $78,000 | PSA 9 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · BestOffer · lot e7e1302b-6dfd-42d8-bad3-9f6557710e6e |
| Sep 30 | $16,850 | PSA 5 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 298709569335 |
| Sep 29 | $11,791 | PSA 4 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 117426558448 |
| Sep 29 | $12,500 | PSA 1 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 267796421126 |
| Sep 29 | $2,000 | PSA 8 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 407249739738 |
| Sep 28 | $9,214 | PSA 1 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377510011061 |
| Sep 27 | $12,346 | PSA 3 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 128100722619 |
| Sep 27 | $9,400 | PSA 2 | AUC53 zandgemporium |
| Sep 26 | $25,000 | PSA 7 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 307117921952 |
| Sep 25 | $24,000 | PSA 7 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 298662480040 |
| Sep 25 | $15,500 | PSA 5 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 377184463699 |
| Sep 25 | $9,200 | PSA 2 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 206471338094 |
| Sep 22 | $26,000 | PSA 7 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 377184464467 |
2023 Obsidian Flames 223/197 SIR · PSA 10
Pop ~12,300 · efficient
Heating
43 · Liquid
$780 −11%
$695 7d med · last $696
$998 · Jul 14
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $696 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800706337415 |
| Oct 1 | $677 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 128098599107 |
| Oct 1 | $675 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 206565189847 |
| Oct 1 | $700 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 237087077762 |
| Oct 1 | $630 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 407258557759 |
| Oct 1 | $662 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 178535315390 |
| Oct 1 | $724 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 298720249585 |
| Oct 1 | $695 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 298724048008 |
| Sep 30 | $745 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 198662450604 |
| Sep 29 | $641 | eBay BIN · cbrtcgsales (UK) · Obsidian Flames 223/197 PSA 10 |
| Sep 29 | $874 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 128057474095 |
| Sep 29 | $641 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 287612570018 |
| Sep 29 | $695 | eBay AUC 37 bids · dcsports87 · 2023 SV Charizard ex SIR 223/197 PSA 10 · id:377521044252 |
| Sep 28 | $660 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377511221287 |
| Sep 27 | $750 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 158254714278 |
2022 Brilliant Stars V alt art 154/172 · PSA 10
Pop ~15,300
Heating
40 · Liquid
$796 −9%
$725 7d med · last $656
$1,175 · Jul 13
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | $656 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307190201509 |
| Sep 30 | $665 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377515278751 |
| Sep 30 | $695 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 398424686716 |
| Sep 29 | $785 | eBay BIN · tenfourninety · PSA 10 Charizard V 154/172 Brilliant Stars Alt Art · id:2275412 |
| Sep 29 | $1,063 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 198455546882 |
| Sep 29 | $720 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 366677017460 |
| Sep 28 | $800 | BIN adkmack1327 |
| Sep 28 | $927 | eBay BIN · moztcg (Canada) · PSA 10 Charizard V 154/172 Alternate Art Brilliant Stars · id |
| Sep 28 | $780 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6513017 |
| Sep 28 | $700 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 377517801988 |
| Sep 28 | $928 | eBay BIN · moztcg (CA) · Charizard V 154/172 Alt Art PSA 10 |
| Sep 27 | $791 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 137739876143 |
| Sep 27 | $705 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307186261255 |
| Sep 27 | $875 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 358851639014 |
| Sep 27 | $721 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 287594621483 |
2021 Celebrations Classic 4/102 · PSA 10
The last Base Charizard reprint
Heating
101 · Liquid
$502 −6%
$470 7d med · last $532
$900 · Sep 20
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $532 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800705751553 |
| Oct 1 | $470 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307193411014 |
| Oct 1 | $425 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 366687604191 |
| Oct 1 | $499 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 307200901041 |
| Oct 1 | $499 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 128087889046 |
| Oct 1 | $515 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 800743844788 |
| Sep 30 | $473 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 298694066656 |
| Sep 30 | $437 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 366691788974 |
| Sep 30 | $520 | eBay AUC 30 bids · amt_memorabilia · PSA 10 2021 Pokemon Sword & Shield Celebrations C |
| Sep 30 | $480 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 407208491046 |
| Sep 30 | $343 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 137772223252 |
| Sep 30 | $485 | eBay BIN · drzaz44 · PSA 10 25th Celebrations Charizard 4/102 Holo · id:318925913231 |
| Sep 29 | $600 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307190256905 |
| Sep 29 | $435 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800695894430 |
| Sep 29 | $450 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 158358909299 |
Catalyst timeline
Twenty-seven years of the same card, and the last ten days.
1999-01
Base Set (English) · Charizard 4/102 · 1st Edition, Shadowless, Unlimited
2016-11
XY Evolutions reprints Base Set art · the 2016 kids' Charizard
2021-10
Celebrations Classic Collection reprints 4/102
2025-01 → 06
Pokémon boom: Prismatic allocation crisis, Costco/Target frenzies
2025-10 → 11
Rollover: OBF Charizard −37%, Umbreon SIR −48%
2026-07-15
30th Celebration preorders · PC ETB sells out in hours · JP box ¥47,200
Anticipation
2026-08
Shadowless PSA 8 $5,500 auctions, $5,900–6,300 BOAs · Evolutions PSA 10 $8,000
Vintage and nostalgia tiers heat
2026-09-06 → 13
30th Charizard reprint pre-release raw $599–700
Pre-release premium
2026-09-08 → 09
Shadowless PSA 7 $4,200 · Evolutions PSA 10 $9,999 / $10,799
Heating fires
2026-09-15 → 16
30th Celebration releases · reprint raw ~$220 (20 sales on Sep 16) · JP box ¥17,500
−64% in six days · launch mode: Dumping
The read · Charizard
The character leads; the vehicle decides whether it sticks. Charizard is the cleanest test of the standing thesis that nostalgia attaches to IP, not cardboard. Nine vehicles, one character, and the premium is real in every one of them — but it behaves completely differently by supply. The 30th Celebration reprint got the character premium instantly (~$600 raw before anyone could open a pack) and lost two-thirds of it in six days once supply arrived. Celebrations 2021 is the template: same reprint idea, PSA 10 now ~$500 and flat. Modern chase Charizards (151, OBF, Brilliant Stars) are efficiently priced by five-figure populations and drift with their sets. The money that's actually moving is in the tiers that can't be reprinted: Shadowless PSA 6–8 and Evolutions PSA 10 — the card 2016's ten-year-olds pulled.
So the honest read on "Pokémon is hot": the pocket rotated. 151 cooled while the 30th popped and dumped, and the vintage/nostalgia Charizards heated quietly underneath. Three Charizard markets moving three directions in the same fortnight, which is exactly why a subject page has to sit above the set pages. IP decides where the attention goes; scarcity decides whether the price stays.
What the detector missed, and the fix. The reprint's pop-and-dump was the biggest move in Pokémon this month and v0.1 was blind to it: a brand-new line had no 30-day history, so no badge. v0.2 adds a launch mode — anchor to the pre-release median, badge "New," fire Dumping when the daily median drops 40%+ after release — and that badge is now live on this page. Still open: fixed-price prints don't confirm a pop, so the Evolutions Heating stays unconfirmed until an auction clears.
What would change the read: the 30th reprint finding a floor above $250 and graded tens appearing under $800 (then it's Celebrations again); Evolutions PSA 10 clearing $9,500+ on auction (confirms); Shadowless PSA 8 above $6,000 on auction; or 151 Charizard SIR reclaiming $1,600 (rotation reversing).
Sources: eBay sold via card-comp-sweep · 130point · Pikawiz PSA mirror · PokéBeach / Bulbapedia / press on the 30th Celebration · brief: research/pokemon-151/01 · comps: research/charizard/02
Subject page. Set name "30th Celebration" and Classic pack distribution unverified. Built Oct 2, 2026 from 888 clean sales · figures rule-verified, not reviewer-verified · "HobbyPulse" is a working name.