← The pulse · Non-sports · 2019 Panini
Fortnite Series 1
300 cards · every card #101–300 in Base, Holofoil, Crystal Shard · three prints: USA, Italy, Brazil · Read the full investor memo →
ConfirmedCooling
USA hobby box
$825
vs $799 baseline · +3%
USA Mega box
$2,367
Aug 21 · baseline $906
BK base PSA 10
$660
Sep 28 · baseline $1,300
BK Holo PSA 9
$3,000
Sep 2 · baseline $850
Clean sales on file
20
key line · 7 lines tracked
The set pop, on the chart
USA hobby box, every clean sale. Volume doubled mid-August, then price.
19 clean sales · Each dot is one USA-print hobby box sale on eBay. Italy boxes stayed $75–250 throughout.
Black Knight base PSA 10
The set's key single. 111 PSA 10s exist; Italy PSA 10s trade at $342–500.
8 clean sales · Black Knight #252 base PSA 10, USA print.
Lines
USA print unless marked. Signal v0.2 · baseline = time-anchored median (liquid) or prior sales (thin) · Latest = 7-day median on liquid lines.
Line
Signal
Sales · 14d
Baseline
Latest
Peak · 120d
Hobby box, 24 packs, sealed (USA)
Panini logo on shrink · Italy is plain film
Flat
3 · Liquid
$799 +3%
$825 7d med · last $825
$1,250 · Aug 29
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | $825 | eBay BIN · darodr_8207 · Panini Fortnite Series 1 2019 Trading Cards Sealed Box 24 Packs U |
| Sep 24 | $850 | eBay BIN · rickscardsandcomics · Panini Fortnite Series 1 2019 Trading Cards Sealed Box 24 |
| Sep 20 | $416 | AUC25 petro.ro USA print |
| Sep 11 | $810 | OBO |
| Sep 6 | $1,008 | auction 37 bids |
| Aug 29 | $1,250 | BOA |
| Aug 28 | $800 | OBO |
| Aug 27 | $799 | BOA |
| Aug 26 | $730 | BOA |
| Aug 22 | $700 | BOA |
| Aug 21 | $724 | BIN |
| Aug 21 | $699 | BOA |
| Aug 16 | $599 | BOA |
| Aug 11 | $370 | BOA |
| Aug 8 | $320 | BIN |
Hobby box, 24 packs, sealed (Italy)
Plain film shrink · 1st Edition / Mega Blaster wording = Italy
Flat
0 · Normal
$165 +17%
$192 · Sep 16
$250 · Sep 14
6 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 | $192 | auction 8 bids; unmarked US listing <$250 -> Italy (rule 2); auzeecardz |
| Sep 14 | $250 | BIN; title says Italy Print; imamakdaddy |
| Sep 14 | $235 | BIN; Hobby Retail Box unmarked <$250 -> Italy; jsharp20 |
| Aug 10 | $165 | BIN; unmarked US <$250 -> Italy; peachstatecollectibles |
| Aug 4 | $92 | BIN; France seller -> Italy; gold-collector |
| Aug 3 | $125 | BIN; unmarked US <$250 -> Italy; collectable_collectibles |
Mega box, sealed (Italy)
'1st Edition' / 'Mega Blaster' wording · ~$250 boxes are Italy
Warm-up
5
—
$91 · Sep 30
$174 · Sep 6
8 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | $91 | eBay BIN · crocus_cards · Panini Fortnite Series 1 Mega Blaster Box Italy Print 12 Packs + |
| Sep 21 | $172 | eBay BIN · love2style · Panini Fortnite S1 Mega Box TWO CRYSTAL SHARDS PER BOX New Sealed |
| Sep 21 | $172 | eBay BIN · love2style · S1 Mega Box 2 Crystal Shards UK seller=Italy (from mega usa query) |
| Sep 21 | $174 | BIN-OBO love2style UK seller inferred Italy |
| Sep 20 | $92 | BIN crocus_cards Germany Italy print (fewer-words match) |
| Sep 14 | $167 | BIN jmlcollectibles UK seller titled Italy Mega Blaster 1x |
| Sep 14 | $167 | BIN jmlcollectibles UK Italy Mega Blaster Box |
| Sep 6 | $174 | BIN(oBO) love2style UK seller EU location = Italy print |
Mega box, 12 packs + 2 shards, sealed (USA)
Only source of Crystal Shards
Confirmed
0 · Normal
$906 +161%
$2,367 · Aug 21
$2,498 · Aug 20
8 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | $2,367 | BIN |
| Aug 20 | $2,498 | BIN |
| Aug 19 | $931 | BIN dacardworld |
| Aug 5 | $880 | BIN |
| Aug 5 | $906 | OBO |
| Aug 4 | $900 | BOA |
| Jul 29 | $893 | BIN |
| Jul 29 | $799 | BOA |
Black Knight #252 base PSA 10
111 PSA 10s exist · Italy PSA 10 $342–500
Cooling
1 · Normal
$1,300 −49%
$660 · Sep 28
$2,500 · Aug 25
9 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | $660 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · Auction · lot 6521391 |
| Sep 6 | $425 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 398335009664 |
| Sep 4 | $1,300 | auction 26 bids |
| Aug 28 | $2,000 | BOA verified |
| Aug 25 | $2,500 | auction 7 bids |
| Aug 13 | $599 | OBO |
| Aug 2 | $995 | OBO |
| Jul 5 | $679 | 1 bid |
| Aug 20 | $550 | SCI |
Black Knight #252 Holofoil PSA 9
Thin line · 20 PSA 10s exist
Cooling
0 · Thin
$850 +253%
$3,000 · Sep 2
$3,000 · Sep 2
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 | $3,000 | PSA APR · eBay Best Offer |
| Jul 11 | $850 | PSA APR · eBay Fixed Price |
| Apr 20 | $660 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect Auction |
| Feb 23 | $900 | PSA APR · eBay Best Offer |
| Jan 27 | $536 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Aug 27 | $950 | PSA APR · eBay Fixed Price |
| Aug 21 | $950 | PSA APR · eBay Fixed Price |
| Mar 25 | $566 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Feb 1 | $1,000 | PSA APR · eBay Fixed Price |
| Oct 16 | $1,075 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Sep 25 | $800 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Mar 26 | $1,903 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Mar 14 | $1,646 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Feb 21 | $1,700 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Mar 11 | $1,555 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
Black Knight #252 Holofoil PSA 10
Last public sale Feb 2025 (PSA APR) · asks $45–50k
Dormant
0 · Thin
$6,100 −33%
$4,100 · Feb 23
—
10 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23 | $4,100 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Sep 28 | $7,103 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Jun 25 | $4,700 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Dec 19 | $6,100 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Oct 24 | $6,100 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Sep 10 | $6,300 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| May 23 | $8,600 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| May 9 | $12,699 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Apr 15 | $17,211 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Feb 18 | $30,000 | PSA APR · eBay Best Offer |
Black Knight #252 Crystal Shard PSA 9
Only USA shard sale in 90 days · 153 bids
Confirmed
0 · Thin
$5,500 +80%
$9,877 · Jul 29
$9,877 · Jul 29
5 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29 | $9,877 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| May 2 | $9,099 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Mar 30 | $5,500 | PSA APR · eBay Best Offer |
| Aug 24 | $5,000 | PSA APR · eBay Best Offer |
| Aug 9 | $9,125 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
Black Knight #252 Crystal Shard PSA 10
Two public sales ever · $100k Aug 26 private & unverified
Dormant
0
—
$17,271 · May 31
—
2 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| May 31 | $17,271 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
| Mar 29 | $15,190 | PSA APR · eBay Auction |
Supply
PSA population · GemRate, Sep 14 2026 · "graded / PSA 10s". Gem rates are of cards submitted.
| Black Knight #252 | Base | Holofoil | Crystal Shard |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 673 / 111 (16.5%) | 214 / 20 (9.3%) | 45 / 9 (20%) |
| Italy | 213 / 44 (20.7%) | 89 / 3 (3.4%) | 167 / 39 (23.4%) |
| Brazil | 21 / 1 | 46 / 1 | 64 / 4 |
Set-wide: 31,313 PSA-graded, 32% gem rate flat since 2022; grading volume down from ~1,000/month (2023) to ~28/week. USA/Italy spread: boxes ~2–4x, BK PSA 10 shard ~18x.
Rip or hold
Pull odds from the set's stated ratios × PSA 10 rate from the pop report × graded value. One number per box, beside the box price.
Fortnite S1 · Hobby box · Italy
$150–225 sealed
Black Knight base per box3.96%2 Legendaries · 50 in set
× PSA 10 if pulled20.7%44 of 213 graded · Italy
= BK PSA 10 per box1 in 1220.82%
BK holo per box0.5%gems 3.4% · Italy foil
Expected graded value / box~$35vs $225 sealed
Fortnite S1 · Mega box · USA
$2,400 sealed
Black Knight shard per box1.0%2 shards · 200 cards
× PSA 10 if pulled20%9 of 45 graded · USA
= BK shard PSA 10 per box1 in 500$15–17k public · $100k reported
Any shard gems40%non-key 10s $600–2,000
Expected graded value / box~$1,000vs $2,400 · was ~even at $900 in early Aug
The read · Fortnite Series 1
The USA premium is the label, not the cardboard. No print-run numbers exist for any print. The only documented physical difference is the shard pattern. Sealed boxes trade at 2–4x USA over Italy; graded singles at 18x+. If scarcity drove it, boxes would carry the same multiple. Every analog (Pokémon JP/EN, 1st Ed/Unlimited, GPK UK) shows a grader-labeled regional discount persisting.
What that means: Italy boxes are a category bet at a discount, not a convergence bet. One live inefficiency: Black Knight Italy Holofoil PSA 10, pop 3 vs 20 USA, priced like the label.
Sources: PSA APR & pop (Sep 16) · GemRate · Panini sell sheet · Fanatics/PWCC lot · 130point · 6 briefs, Sep 15–16 2026
Set page. Supply and rip-or-hold figures reviewer-verified Sep 15–16; Italy hobby box is not a tracked line yet. Built Oct 2, 2026 from 96 clean sales · figures rule-verified, not reviewer-verified · "HobbyPulse" is a working name.