← The pulse · Pokémon · Set
Pokémon 151
Scarlet & Violet 151 (English, Sep 2023) · 165 cards + secrets to 207 · Charizard ex SIR 199/165 is the chase · sealed: UPC, ETB, booster bundle (no English booster box)
Heating
Charizard SIR · PSA 10
$1,390
vs $1,425 baseline · −2%
From 120-day peak
−16%
from $1,650 peak · Jun 30
UPC sealed
$877
vs $850 baseline · +3%
Charizard SIR · sales 14d
70
sales · 14 days
Clean sales on file
277
key line · 12 lines tracked
The chase card, on the chart
Every clean sale of the key line over the last ~100 days. No pop — a stair-step down while volume stays huge.
275 clean sales · Charizard ex 199/165 SIR PSA 10. 30 Best-Offer accepts confirmed on 130point at 92–95% of ask.
Sealed is grinding too
Unlike Mickey, sealed isn't diverging from singles — the whole set drifts together. Cases trade at no premium to single boxes.
169 clean sales · Ultra Premium Collection sealed. The August gap is eBay's 540-result search cap, not a market gap.
Key card ladder
Ranked by hobby importance. Pop for the SIR is from a PSA mirror (Pikawiz, Sep 16) — verify on PSA before quoting.
#
Card
PSA pop / 10s
Gem rate
1
Charizard ex 199/165 · Special Illustration Rare
The chase · ~1:200–250 packs by inference (SIR ~1:32)
89,709 / 26,218
~29%
2
Charizard ex 183/165 · Ultra Rare
Full-art ex · the thin Charizard
—
—
3
Mew ex 205/165 · SIR
UPC ships a metal replica (own line)
—
—
4
Venusaur ex 198 · Blastoise ex 200 · SIR
The other starters
—
—
5
Ultra Premium Collection · sealed
16 packs + metal Mew · the sealed line to watch
—
—
6
Elite Trainer Box · Booster Bundle
No English booster box exists
—
—
—
Japanese sv2a box
Same set, different line · China-shipped listings polluting
—
—
Lines
Twelve lines, 90-day window. Signal v0.2 · baseline = time-anchored median (liquid) or prior sales (thin) · Latest = 7-day median on liquid lines.
Line
Signal
Sales · 14d
Baseline
Latest
Peak · 120d
Charizard ex 199/165 SIR · PSA 10
The liquid line · pop ~26,200 tens (~29% gem)
Flat
70 · Liquid
$1,425 −2%
$1,390 7d med · last $1,475
$1,941 · Jun 24
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $1,475 | 130point · eBay BIN · Pokemon 151 CHARIZARD ex PSA 10 Special Illustration Rare 199/165 · |
| Oct 1 | $1,320 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 800743844777 |
| Oct 1 | $1,360 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 257761201691 |
| Oct 1 | $1,250 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 800741585366 |
| Oct 1 | $1,425 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 298709366132 |
| Sep 30 | $1,400 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 298719602833 |
| Sep 30 | $1,544 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Charizard ex 199/165 SV 151 Special Illustration Rare Holo |
| Sep 30 | $1,593 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 318901012958 |
| Sep 30 | $1,677 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 237069880399 |
| Sep 30 | $1,350 | eBay AUC 48 bids · amt_memorabilia · Charizard ex PSA 10 2023 Pokemon SV 151 #199/165 SIR |
| Sep 30 | $1,350 | eBay AUC 19 bids · dcsports87 · 2023 Pokemon SV 151 Charizard ex SIR #199/165 PSA 10 · id: |
| Sep 29 | $1,818 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 398424235503 |
| Sep 29 | $1,390 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 227544621850 |
| Sep 29 | $1,419 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 117427495897 |
| Sep 29 | $1,550 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 206579676279 |
Charizard ex 199/165 SIR · PSA 9
10/9 ratio ~3.7x
Heating
100 · Liquid
$385 −5%
$365 7d med · last $365
$513 · Sep 28
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $365 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377518681397 |
| Oct 1 | $350 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 407256224074 |
| Oct 1 | $365 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 198675451664 |
| Sep 30 | $380 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 327380538541 |
| Sep 30 | $404 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Charizard EX SIR PSA 9 Scarlet and Violet 151 199/165 · 09: |
| Sep 30 | $429 | 130point · eBay BIN · Charizard ex 199/165 151 - PSA 9 · 05:40 |
| Sep 30 | $325 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 237086944948 |
| Sep 30 | $405 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 158128526612 |
| Sep 30 | $375 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 298701333713 |
| Sep 30 | $409 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 298714330554 |
| Sep 30 | $355 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 117424104595 |
| Sep 30 | $430 | eBay BIN · sleepyfoxcards (UK) · Charizard ex 199/165 151 PSA 9 · id:257764792613 |
| Sep 30 | $360 | eBay BIN · arizona_tcg · 2023 Charizard ex 199/165 SIR 151 PSA 9 · id:407256160907 |
| Sep 30 | $370 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 327350831143 |
| Sep 29 | $350 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 117435963557 |
Charizard ex 199/165 SIR · raw
Flat
100 · Liquid
$348 −5%
$330 7d med · last $404
$550 · Sep 25
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | $404 | 130point · eBay BIN · Scarlet & Violet-151 Charizard ex 199/165 Holo Special Illustrat |
| Oct 1 | $320 | 130point · eBay AUC 24 bids · Pokemon TCG 151 MEW EN 199/165 Charizard ex Special Illustra |
| Oct 1 | $330 | 130point · eBay BIN · Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare 199/165 - 151 (NM) · 08:59 |
| Oct 1 | $368 | 130point · eBay BIN · Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare 199/165 2023 151 NM · 14:30 |
| Oct 1 | $307 | 130point · eBay AUC 33 bids · 2023 Pokemon SV 151 Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare # |
| Sep 30 | $381 | 130point · eBay BIN · Charizard ex - 199/165 - Special Illustration Rare - 151 - NM/M · 23 |
| Sep 30 | $330 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Charizard ex 199/165 Sv: Scarlet & Violet 151 Holo · 15 |
| Sep 30 | $326 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Charizard ex 199/165 Scarlet & Violet 151 Full Art Holo |
| Sep 30 | $370 | 130point · eBay BIN · Charizard ex 199/165 Special Illustration Rare SV 151 Full Art Holo |
| Sep 30 | $354 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare 199/165 - 151 (NM) · |
| Sep 30 | $310 | eBay BIN · lewtheolddog · Pokemon TCG Charizard ex 199/165 SV 151 SIR Full Art Holo Englis |
| Sep 30 | $360 | eBay BIN · appalachiatc · Pokemon Charizard ex 199/165 SV 151 SIR Full Art · id:2577635280 |
| Sep 30 | $350 | eBay BIN · epic-pack-ma · Charizard ex 199/165 SV 151 Full Art Holo English · id:407255438 |
| Sep 30 | $305 | eBay AUC 49 bids · jrgamess · Charizard ex 199/165 SV 151 Holo · id:137794554526 |
| Sep 29 | $315 | eBay BIN · bigredbradley99 · Charizard ex 199/165 SV 151 SIR raw · id:820188113987 |
Charizard ex 183/165 UR · PSA 10
Thinnest Charizard in the set
Flat
21 · Liquid
$201 +7%
$216 7d med · last $209
$271 · Jul 25
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | $209 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 128095101359 |
| Sep 29 | $251 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 267796106593 |
| Sep 29 | $220 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 227506766885 |
| Sep 29 | $252 | eBay BIN · cdp_collectables · PSA 10 183/165 151 SIR (UK seller) |
| Sep 27 | $216 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 398397276250 |
| Sep 27 | $190 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 237082965885 |
| Sep 26 | $200 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · FixedPrice · lot 170bfb63-ae0b-4707-8cab-edb8d1932675 |
| Sep 25 | $197 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 168679642271 |
| Sep 25 | $180 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377501159232 |
| Sep 24 | $220 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 158288706766 |
| Sep 24 | $249 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 377510297031 |
| Sep 23 | $190 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 128084732389 |
| Sep 23 | $202 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 377501278347 |
| Sep 22 | $205 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · FixedPrice · lot 088a5651-e692-4e1e-ac6b-25f5f5777ac8 |
| Sep 21 | $254 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 287577862523 |
Charizard ex 006/165 · PSA 10
Search is ~60% Japanese sv2a mis-titled
Flat
5 · Liquid
$142 −29%
$101 7d med · last $102
$180 · Sep 24
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $102 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 267797621001 |
| Sep 30 | $60 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 168743037508 |
| Sep 29 | $100 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 188969419451 |
| Sep 28 | $140 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 227428972651 |
| Sep 24 | $180 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 407196260477 |
| Sep 18 | $140 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 377349997079 |
| Sep 18 | $159 | BIN elite4collectables |
| Sep 18 | $160 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 800155566631 |
| Sep 13 | $112 | English; low end |
| Aug 30 | $160 | BIN-OBO |
| Aug 29 | $142 | AUC10 |
| Aug 18 | $142 | GBP converted |
| Aug 16 | $140 | AUC12 |
| Aug 15 | $140 | BIN |
| Aug 11 | $140 | BIN |
Mew ex 205/165 SIR · PSA 10
UPC-labelled slabs excluded
Flat
15 · Liquid
$285 −17%
$238 7d med · last $220
$392 · Sep 7
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $220 | PSA APR · Fanatics Collect · FixedPrice · lot b81390b5-75c5-4a58-bbf8-2fa97c3cb9af |
| Oct 1 | $240 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 318849025115 |
| Oct 1 | $235 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 117438946096 |
| Oct 1 | $350 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 307091927073 |
| Sep 30 | $275 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 336796793292 |
| Sep 26 | $220 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 298701011119 |
| Sep 25 | $221 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307182620842 |
| Sep 24 | $235 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 318879891281 |
| Sep 24 | $202 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 800673161264 |
| Sep 21 | $218 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 188904577310 |
| Sep 20 | $250 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 318886917632 |
| Sep 20 | $234 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 137697748714 |
| Sep 20 | $269 | BIN jgweller UK titled UPC |
| Sep 19 | $276 | EN gold hyper rare; AUC14 UK jgweller GBP converted |
| Sep 19 | $265 | EN gold hyper rare; BIN Canada ptx_cards CAD converted |
Venusaur ex 198/165 SIR · PSA 10
Heating
43 · Liquid
$444 −4%
$425 7d med · last $528
$625 · Sep 12
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $528 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 267793996441 |
| Oct 1 | $445 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 257726134291 |
| Sep 30 | $465 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 377518254676 |
| Sep 30 | $434 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 307202068281 |
| Sep 29 | $394 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 287614310370 |
| Sep 28 | $425 | eBay BIN · scotrose · Venusaur ex 198/165 SV 151 SIR English PSA 10 · id:366696351573 |
| Sep 28 | $425 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 168703634864 |
| Sep 28 | $420 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 257769806383 |
| Sep 28 | $425 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 188990897957 |
| Sep 27 | $522 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 137735142487 |
| Sep 27 | $324 | AUC15 dcsports87 |
| Sep 27 | $440 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 377463612882 |
| Sep 27 | $340 | AUC15 dcsports87 |
| Sep 27 | $393 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 287596572022 |
| Sep 27 | $397 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 278387491900 |
Blastoise ex 200/165 SIR · PSA 10
Holding best of the SIRs
Heating
57 · Liquid
$580 −9%
$525 7d med · last $535
$860 · Sep 2
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $535 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 407255976358 |
| Sep 30 | $551 | eBay AUC 49 bids · amt_memorabilia · Blastoise ex PSA 10 2023 Pokemon SV 151 #200/165 SIR |
| Sep 30 | $533 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 298695545559 |
| Sep 28 | $550 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 307186718317 |
| Sep 28 | $513 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 178516079474 |
| Sep 28 | $510 | eBay AUC 16 bids · robscha_7797 · SV 151 SIR Holo PSA 10 EN |
| Sep 28 | $540 | eBay BIN · eric-garage-sale · PSA 10 Blastoise ex 200/165 SIR 151 MEW EN |
| Sep 27 | $475 | AUC25 dcsports87 |
| Sep 27 | $450 | AUC16 dcsports87 |
| Sep 27 | $580 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 137735142833 |
| Sep 27 | $524 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 307200896901 |
| Sep 27 | $490 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 158345291771 |
| Sep 26 | $480 | PSA APR · eBay · Auction · lot 327364885698 |
| Sep 26 | $525 | PSA APR · eBay · BestOffer · lot 168679725422 |
| Sep 26 | $562 | PSA APR · eBay · FixedPrice · lot 377519003141 |
Ultra Premium Collection · sealed
~5/day · cases at no premium
Flat
42 · Liquid
$850 +3%
$877 7d med · last $830
$1,110 · Jul 16
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | $830 | eBay AUC 23 bids · beckmancory · Pokemon TCG 151 MEW EN Ultra Premium Collection Box SEALE |
| Sep 30 | $1,033 | 130point · eBay BIN · Pokemon 151 Ultra Premium Collection NEW SEALED (multi-variation lis |
| Sep 29 | $915 | eBay AUC 18 bids · probstein123 · 151 UPC SEALED w/ acrylic · id:377515413363 |
| Sep 29 | $946 | eBay AUC 36 bids · rgjjamrob · 151 UPC SEALED with acrylic case · id:128104162833 |
| Sep 29 | $875 | eBay BIN · wristwranglers · S&V 151 UPC Factory Sealed · id:307204662729 |
| Sep 29 | $900 | eBay BIN · tcgauthentic · Pokemon TCG 151 Ultra Premium Collection UPC Factory Sealed · id |
| Sep 28 | $900 | eBay BIN · tcgauthentic · 151 UPC Factory Sealed |
| Sep 27 | $879 | BIN poke.legends |
| Sep 27 | $840 | AUC42 teamrocketgiovanni |
| Sep 27 | $880 | BIN unmasked_luchador |
| Sep 26 | $842 | BIN smilinglove_8889 |
| Sep 26 | $815 | AUC7 justyfilm |
| Sep 26 | $972 | BIN z1991p |
| Sep 26 | $830 | AUC25 tripletreattcg |
| Sep 26 | $853 | AUC21 slabsharksinc |
Elite Trainer Box · sealed
Pokémon Center ETB is its own line
Flat
19 · Liquid
$515 −3%
$500 7d med · last $442
$740 · Jul 10
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | $442 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Pokemon TCG Scarlet & Violet 151 Elite Trainer Box New |
| Sep 30 | $590 | 130point · eBay BIN · Pokemon 151 Elite Trainer Box NEW SEALED (multi-variation listing) · |
| Sep 29 | $500 | eBay BIN · xiv.000 · Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 Elite Trainer Box - Sealed · id:3272 |
| Sep 28 | $500 | BIN wilya-3390 |
| Sep 27 | $525 | AUC34 slapauction |
| Sep 26 | $495 | BIN ckcardys |
| Sep 26 | $536 | AUC56 mrmasr |
| Sep 25 | $500 | BIN wilya-3390 |
| Sep 25 | $500 | BIN micvo25 |
| Sep 23 | $549 | BIN lavendertowncollectibles |
| Sep 22 | $565 | AUC3 cholos_catching_pokemon |
| Sep 21 | $530 | BIN-OBO kickassstuff |
| Sep 21 | $485 | AUC3 probstein123 |
| Sep 21 | $430 | BIN dam371245 zero-feedback seller |
| Sep 21 | $550 | BIN-OBO all_day_kicks with acrylic case |
Booster Bundle (6 packs) · sealed
Display/case lots excluded
Flat
89 · Liquid
$174 −8%
$160 7d med · last $183
$232 · Sep 25
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | $183 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle BOX Factory Sealed |
| Oct 1 | $179 | 130point · eBay BIN · Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle Sealed New (6 packs) · 02:27 |
| Oct 1 | $186 | 130point · eBay BIN · Pokemon 151 Booster Bundle Sealed Brand new · 08:57 · id:12807975334 |
| Oct 1 | $151 | 130point · eBay BOA accepted · Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle New Sealed + Protec |
| Oct 1 | $165 | eBay BIN · jorort6424 · Pokemon Scarlet and Violet 151 Booster Bundle Sealed · id:16873651 |
| Sep 30 | $194 | eBay BIN · traderscache · Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle 6 Packs Factory |
| Sep 30 | $152 | eBay AUC 36 bids · probstein123 · Pokemon TCG 151 MEW EN Booster Bundle SEALED SV3.5 · id: |
| Sep 30 | $137 | eBay BIN · 96thst_80 · Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle Sealed New (6 packs |
| Sep 30 | $160 | eBay BIN · 606164 · Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle Sealed · id:1890126714 |
| Sep 30 | $160 | eBay BIN · alstoc_7515 · Pokemon Scarlet & Violet 151 Booster Bundle Sealed · id:29872 |
| Sep 29 | $140 | eBay BIN · eurekakart · S&V 151 Booster Bundle Box 6 sealed packs · id:298717668691 |
| Sep 29 | $150 | eBay BIN · eyejustbaggedthis · 151 Booster Bundle Box factory sealed · id:137791563113 |
| Sep 29 | $110 | eBay BIN · muhamm621 · S&V 151 Booster Bundle 6 packs sealed · id:366638553896 |
| Sep 29 | $158 | eBay AUC 33 bids · fullsheets · S&V 151 Booster Bundle Factory Sealed 6 packs · id:278 |
| Sep 29 | $118 | eBay BIN · belle-creole · S&V 151 Booster Bundle Sealed 6 packs · id:158293341540 |
Japanese sv2a booster box · sealed
~40% of listings ship from China (tagged suspect)
Flat
19 · Liquid
$275 −17%
$229 7d med · last $247
$365 · Sep 13
15 most recent clean sales
| Date | Price | Source / note |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | $247 | BIN miscgoods2 |
| Sep 26 | $225 | AUC3 stuchandler_123 |
| Sep 26 | $232 | AUC4 stuchandler_123 |
| Sep 26 | $218 | BIN exsport-us |
| Sep 25 | $251 | AUC4 thecalibrevault |
| Sep 25 | $238 | BIN radhijames89 |
| Sep 23 | $290 | BIN cestmimi |
| Sep 22 | $262 | BIN topsellershoppingthebest |
| Sep 22 | $285 | BIN thepokeyshop |
| Sep 22 | $218 | BIN szrs2019 |
| Sep 21 | $242 | AUC17 probstein123 |
| Sep 21 | $220 | BIN zhengnengliang15 |
| Sep 21 | $275 | BIN coldsnapdiscount |
| Sep 21 | $275 | BIN tannerscollectibles |
| Sep 21 | $240 | BIN devihorne-0 |
Catalyst timeline
How the hottest set of 2025 became the one grinding down in 2026.
2023-09-22
SV 151 releases (English) · no booster box, UPC/ETB/bundles only
2025-01
Prismatic Evolutions allocation crisis · Pokémon sealed goes parabolic
The 2025 boom
2025-05 → 06
Costco / Target restock frenzies · 151 reprint waves
2025-10 → 11
First rollover: OBF Charizard $126 → $79, Umbreon SIR $1,600 → $832
Modern chase cards give back
2025-12
Last 151 print wave (Sam's Club tins) · tail-print phase (community)
2026-02
Pokémon correction · press consensus 'correction not crash'
2026-06
Charizard SIR PSA 10 $1,600 · UPC $904
Baseline
2026-07-15
30th Celebration preorders open · PC ETB sells out in hours
Attention rotates
2026-09-15 → 16
30th Celebration releases · eBay Live banners all '30th release day'
151 grinding · zero pops in 12 lines
The read · Pokémon 151
The premise was wrong, and that's the finding. "Pokémon is popping" was the working assumption going in. Twelve lines and 1,500 sales say otherwise: every line in 151 is down from July, the Charizard SIR PSA 10 has stair-stepped from $1,600 in June, and the signal found zero pops in three months. Volume is enormous — dozens of Charizard tens a fortnight — which is exactly what makes this set the wrong place to look for a pop: a ~26,000-population PSA 10 is priced by the market every day and there's no thin tier for a whale to move.
Attention rotated, on schedule. The 30th Celebration set released Sep 15–16 and every eBay Live banner that day was the new product. 151's tail-print phase (last wave Dec 2025, per the community) means supply stopped growing, but the demand that would matter for a pop went to the next shiny thing. That is the Pokémon pattern in 2025–26: the boom (Prismatic, Jan 2025) → the frenzies (Costco/Target, May–Jun) → the rollover (Oct–Nov 2025: OBF Charizard −37%, Umbreon SIR −48%) → correction (Feb 2026) → rotation into new releases. Modern-chase money moves set to set; it doesn't sit.
Sealed isn't the escape here. On Mickey the box kept making highs while singles cooled. On 151 the UPC, ETB and bundle drift with the singles and cases trade at no premium — sealed is as liquid and as efficiently priced as the SIR.
What would change the read: Charizard SIR PSA 10 clearing $1,600 on auction (not BIN) with 14-day volume still ≥25; UPC above $950; or a 151 reprint confirmed dead (Reg Mark G rotation) plus a real supply shock. Until then the set is a liquidity benchmark, not a pocket. For where the Pokémon money is actually going, see the Charizard subject page.
Sources: eBay sold via card-comp-sweep · 130point (30 BOA accepts) · PokéPatch / DigitalTQ pull-rate studies · Pikawiz PSA mirror · TCGIndex · brief: research/pokemon-151/01–02
Set page. Built Oct 2, 2026 from 1,671 clean sales · figures rule-verified, not reviewer-verified · "HobbyPulse" is a working name.